Winter gets Serious

The first half of January will be marked by a "polar plunge" as a deep atmospheric trough brings Arctic air to most of the central and eastern U.S.  Some areas will also receive a significant amount of snow, especially in the "lake-effect" areas of the Great Lakes region.

Here in central Missouri, the snow will not arrive until this coming weekend but the extreme cold is expected to persist through all of next week.  If current forecasts are correct, we could receive up to 18 inches of snow.

As our climate warms, average annual temperatures will continue to climb but they will represent a mix of extreme heat and brutally cold periods, superimposed on "typical" seasonal patterns.  An energized jet stream will be responsible for the dramatic shifts and for the severity of storms that they produce. 

Clipper Dynamics

Alberta Clippers are low pressure systems that originate in the Canadian Province of Alberta and rapidly drop southeastward across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region and Northeastern U.S.  Due to their rapid movement, they are generally not associated with significant amounts of snow except for lake-effect squalls along the Great Lakes, high elevation snow down the spine of the Appalachians and coastal snow once the counter-clockwise winds of the storm pull in Atlantic moisture; these onshore winds may also lash the shoreline with powerful waves.

South and west of the low pressure center, strong north winds drag frigid, Arctic air southward.  Last night, these backside winds shook the treetops and rattled windows here in central Missouri.  By this morning, despite bright sunshine and calm conditions, the outside temperature was 15 degrees F.

Since these Clippers depart as rapidly as they arrive, warmer air soon moves in from the west.  We expect afternoon highs near 60 degrees F this weekend.  

Widespread Drought Relief

The latest Pacific storm system, currently centered over North Texas, will track northeastward this week, bringing welcome relief to many drought-plagued areas.  Today, its trailing cold front is expected to ignite strong thunderstorms (with possible tornados and flooding rains) across the Southern Plains.

By tomorrow, the rains will fall primarily across the Midwest while the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley can expect significant precipitation by mid week.  Finally, before moving out to sea, the front is forecast to bring much needed rain to New England, where wildfires continue to develop.

As the lower section of this storm front moves eastward along the Gulf Coast, it is expected to sweep copious moisture from Tropical Storm Sara across that region and the Florida Peninsula.  Meanwhile, much cooler air will drop south behind the storm as the next Pacific system brings rain and snow to the Northwest. 

Crossing Glacial Landscapes

Returning to Missouri from Northeast Ohio, we crossed a series of glacial landscapes.  While the term "glacial terrain" brings to mind rivers of ice, carving mountains or calving into the sea, past glacial effects are not as evident to the casual traveler.

Having spent a week atop the glaciated region of the Appalachian Plateau, we initially dropped onto the vast Lake Plain of Northern Ohio, the product of Pleistocene glacial erosion and a post-glacial meltwater lake (Lake Warren, the much larger predecessor of Lake Erie).  Angling southwestward  through Northeast Indiana, we soon passed the site of The Maumee Torrent, which marked the birth of the Wabash River Valley.

The remainder of our journey was across the Glaciated Plain of the Midwest, where the Pleistocene glaciers pushed southward, flattening the terrain.  As they retreated, they enriched the soil with glacial till, setting the stage for prairie ecosystems that have since given way to crop fields and cattle ranches.  Of course, the massive sheets of ice also determined the course of the Ohio, Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, which now drain the central U.S., from the Rockies to the Appalachians.

 

Back with the Martins

We have returned to my wife's family cottage on Sandy Lake, a small kettle lake on the Glaciated Plateau of Northeast Ohio.  During the summer months, this peaceful location is dominated by a large flock of purple martins that occupy a collection of apartments near the shore.

Noisy and active, the martins spend most of their day strafing the lake's surface for insects.  There they are often joined by a handful of cormorants, cruising about the calm waters or diving for fish, and by a pair of osprey that soar overhead before plunging into the lake to snare their prey.  Flocks of Canada geese and mallards forage along the marshy shoreline while a belted kingfisher moves among the docks, searching for schools of fingerlings.

This lakeside retreat is a pleasant escape from the summer heat that ravages most of the country.  Indeed, many climatologists believe that the Great Lakes region will be least affected by our warming climate (with the probable exception of heavy, lake-effect snowstorms).  Time will tell but, for now, we'll visit when we can.

Crossing the Monster

The massive Pacific storm system that unleashed destructive tornados and torrential rain from Texas to the Great Lakes, finally reached central Missouri last night.  A brief period of intense lightning and thunder was followed by heavy rain.

This morning, having delayed our journey to Colorado due to the storm, we drove through rain from Columbia to Kansas City; fortunately, we did not encounter any severe weather.  As we entered Kansas, the rain abated and, by the time we reached central Kansas, the air was noticeably cooler due to a north breeze; we had clearly reached the back (west) side of the storm's circulation, confirmed by intermittent showers.  This same backside precipitation produced upslope snow in Metro Denver yesterday.

Farther west, the cloud cover gradually diminished and, as we approached Denver, the sky was mostly clear.  Nevertheless, as I write this post, tornados are still forming in East Texas and southeast Oklahoma and an arc of thunderstorms extends northward to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This atmospheric monster, fueled by our warming climate, has not yet lost its punch. 

Landlocked Salmon

On our recent roadtrip to New England and Nova Scotia, we crossed the Salmon River in New York that was clearly flowing into Lake Ontario; the river rises on the Tug Hill Plateau east of the Lake.  Having always associated salmon with marine environments, I was intrigued and did some research.

In the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada, landlocked salmon are a subspecies of the Atlantic Salmon, having become trapped in freshwater lakes during the Pleistocene, when glaciers altered the regional hydrology.  Landlocked Atlantic Salmon were first discovered in Maine but native populations were later found in Lake Ontario and Lake Champlain as well.  Unlike marine salmon species, these salmon spend most of their lives in freshwater lakes, ascending feeder streams to spawn.  The native populations dwindled over time (due to pollution, dams, overfishing and other human influences) but have been sustained through stocking programs.

Landlocked salmon are also found in the Pacific Northwest, where similar geologic events likely played a role in their evolution and where fisheries now introduce them into freshwater ecosystems.

 

What Was not Observed

Over the past few weeks, I have described landscapes across New England and Southeastern Canada that we encountered on our roadtrip to Nova Scotia.  Today, I must report on geography that was not seen.

Setting off from Albany, New York, at dawn this morning, we climbed westward through the Mohawk River Valley.  Unfortunately, due to dense fog, I could not see the River or its associated terrain.  However, I did see road signs indicating that we were crossing the Mohawk or the Erie Canal that parallels the River.

Near the end of the Pleistocene, Lake Ontario was three times its current size as glacial meltwater expanded south of the retreating ice sheet.  Since the St. Lawrence Valley was blacked by the glacier, this massive lake (now known as Glacial Lake Iroquois) drained through the Mohawk Valley, now occupied by the Mohawk River.  Sadly, I could not observe the remnants of that natural history today.

Islands of the Wealthy

Before our boat tour today, I thought that the "1000 Islands," which crowd the upper St. Lawrence Seaway, were mostly undeveloped, a scenic natural landscape that is also used for human recreation.  In fact, almost all of the islands and islets (which actually number more than 1800) are privately owned and inhabited.

The tour proved to be a study in human greed, development and ingenuity, including elaborate means of dealing with utilities.  Sure, a wide variety of wildlife also reside on the islands but their welfare seems to be secondary.

As we explore this planet, our expectations are not always met.  We may be disappointed by what we discover, as I was today.  But, unless we witness the impact of human activity, we will not alter our course.  Indeed, we are now experiencing the consequences of our poor stewardship.

East of Lake Ontario

Exploring the landscape east of Lake Ontario today, we first stopped at Southwick Beach State Park, where we enjoyed a pleasant stroll along the east shore of the Lake as well as the opportunity to view a swath of dunes and wetlands (see photo).

Out next stop was at the remote Eldorado Coastal Preserve, owned and managed by The Nature Conservancy since 1969.  A one-mile walk through dense foliage took us to a beautiful inlet (photo), where a flock of cormorants lounged on a rocky spit, just offshore.

Our final destination was the western edge of the Tug Hill Plateau, which rises east of Lake Ontario.  There we hiked to the rim of a deep gulf (the New England term for a gorge), carved from the Plateau by the upper reaches of Sandy Creek.  Tomorrow we tour the "1000 Islands" at the head of the St. Lawrence River.

Nova Scotia Bound

After attending a family wedding in Cincinnati, my wife and I set off for Nova Scotia today, heading northeastward through Ohio, crossing the northwest tip of Pennsylvania and then driving eastward through New York.  There we will visit the Adirondacks and the Thousand Islands region of the St. Lawrence River and then cross northern New England.

In eastern Maine, we plan to wind up the Atlantic Coast before entering Canada.  Much of our road trip will involve a journey through southern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island and Prince Edward Island, all new territory for me.

Our first stop was at Letchworth State Park, in western New York, which harbors "The Grand Canyon of the East."  To be more specific, this scenic gorge (see photo) was sculpted by the Genesee River as it flows NNE from northwestern Pennsylvania to Lake Ontario at Rochester.  The walls of the gorge are composed of Carboniferous and Devonian strata of the Appalachian Plateau.  Three scenic waterfalls along the Genesee also grace the Park.  More details on our road trip over the next two weeks.

Addendum: Hurricane Lee may alter our plans; stay tuned.  

Following the Rain

Like migrant herbivores on the African Veldt, I have been following the rain for the past few weeks.  Starting in Metro Denver in mid July, I experienced frequent showers and thunderstorms that have dominated the Front Range weather since late spring.

Then, over the past week, my wife and I visited northeast Ohio where regular storms, some heavy, streamed in across the Great Lakes,  Returning to the Heartland today, we encountered a soggy landscape in central Missouri, courtesy of recent torrential rains; thunderstorms are expected to return overnight and a flash flood watch has been issued for much of the State.

In all three geographic regions, I have been on the outer rim of the Southwest Heat Dome.  As the dome expands and contracts, storm bands form along its edge, moving clockwise  Indeed, tonight's storms will arrive from the northwest and continue southeastward through the night, fueled by persistent heat within the high pressure dome. 

Lake-Effect Whiteout

Looking at the current wind patterns across the U.S. (see earth.nullschool.net), one notices a swath of west winds stretching from the northwestern Great Plains to New England.  Dipping through the southern Great Lakes, this swath crosses Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and runs across the entire extent of Lake Erie.

Since the surface waters of the Great Lakes have not yet frozen (and often don't as our climate has warmed), the air is significantly colder than the water, causing the air to absorb moisture.  As the air is forced to rise by land east of the Lakes, it cools below its dew point and precipitation occurs.

Buffalo, New York, at the east end of Lake Erie, is expected to receive up to five feet of snow.  Three to four inches of snow per hour, accompanied by strong winds, lightening and thunder, will shut down the city and, perhaps, set an all-time record for a lake-effect snow event. 

The Privatization of Nature

As one travels about the Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan, one is struck by its beauty and "wildness."  Small towns, mostly located on the primary routes, do not threaten the dominance and power of nature in this harsh environment.  Indeed, for much of the year, some regions of the Peninsula are nearly abandoned by humans.

If one looks closer, however, most of this northern ecosystem, as wild as it may appear, is owned by businesses, permanent residents, seasonal residents or prospective residents.  True nature preserves are relatively small and widely spaced.  Privacy markers and address signs for vacant lots are everywhere and public beaches occupy a small percentage of the Peninsula's coastline.

Of course, this phenomenon is observed across the country, especially at tourist destinations and within attractive landscapes (mountains, sea shores, etc.) that appeal to wealthy citizens.  Second or third homes and "play farms" cluster in these zones and even larger parcels of land are owned by investors who anticipate future development.  While organizations such as the Nature Conservancy work to protect and restore natural ecosystems, their privatization is a relentless threat, 

Exploring the Keweenaw Peninsula

Over the past two days, we have explored areas on the Keweenaw Peninsula that we missed on last year's visit.  Among these were Hungarian Falls, the Redwyn Dunes Preserve (north of Eagle River) and the Bailey Lake Nature Preserve (north of Eagle Harbor).  The latter two areas are managed by the Michigan Nature Conservancy.

Cold, cloudy, windy weather has given us a feel for this northern landscape, subject as it is to the surrounding waters of Lake Superior.  Wildlife sightings have included white-tailed deer, red squirrels, bald eagles, wild turkeys, ruffed grouse and snow buntings; we also encountered bear tracks on one of the beaches.  While the Peninsula is replete with nature preserves, Keweenaw County officials seem to oppose roadway signs that direct visitors to those sites; we had to rely on regional maps and GPS to locate most of them and failed to find two altogether.

The weather cancelled our northern lights vigil last evening but the skies are clearing and we will be more than ready tonight.  More on that experience soon.

Journey to the North Country

On our drive from Madison, Wisconsin, to Houghton, Michigan, today, we were enveloped in a steady, cold rain, among the worst of weather conditions in my opinion.  Combined with a hazy mist, the rain slowed our journey and significantly obscured the magnificent scenery along the way.

About an hour north of Madison, we entered the great North Woods, characterized by conifers, birch trees and willow bogs.  Since we were traveling up the Wisconsin River Valley, we crossed that river and its tributaries many times and finally reached its headwaters along the southern edge of Michigan's Upper Peninsula.  The low, gray overcast produced a dusk-like darkness throughout the journey and we thus hoped that moose might appear along the marsh-lined lakes and bogs; unfortunately, none were observed.  In fact, several bald eagles were the only notable sightings of our day-long trip.

Tomorrow, we'll complete our journey to Copper Harbor, making a few stops en route.  Hopefully, the skies will clear and we'll be treated to one of nature's grandest displays, the Aurora borealis, before we return to the American Heartland.  Daily reports to follow (well, maybe every other day).

Another Moonshot

This morning, we left Columbia on our way to Copper Harbor, Michigan.  Our purpose?  Another attempt to witness the Northern Lights (following our failed effort last November).

We will spend four nights at the northern tip of Michigan but will also enjoy the journey to and from that destination.  Indeed, unexpected sightings along the way may prove to be the highlights of our road trip, especially if the Aurora Borealis does not materialize.  Today, we headed northeast across the Glaciated Plain of the Upper Midwest; while we enjoyed balmy weather through the morning, we encountered a cold front with severe thunderstorms in east-central Iowa, producing hail and torrential rain.

After crossing the Mississippi at Dubuque, we undulated across the Driftless Area of southwest Wisconsin and will spend the night in Madison.  Tomorrow, we head for the North Country.

Crossing the Lake Plain

Heading for my wife's family cabin in northeast Ohio today, we decided on a northern route to avoid urban congestion.  When we reached Ft. Wayne, Indiana, we were in the uppermost watershed of the Wabash River and soon dropped across the vast Lake Plain of northern Ohio, flattened by Pleistocene glaciers and later covered by vast meltwater lakes.

Lake Maumee covered the northwest corner of Ohio and initially spilled to the west, sculpting the Wabash River Valley (see The Maumee Torrent).  The Lake Plain from Toledo to Cleveland was covered by glacial Lake Warren, the larger predecessor of Lake Erie.  Driving eastward across the Plain, we crossed numerous rivers, large and small, all draining toward Lake Erie; indeed, as we left the Wabash River watershed and entered the Lake Plain, we had crossed the Eastern Continental Divide.

As we neared Cleveland on the Ohio Turnpike, a massive ridge of thunderstorms loomed across the eastern horizon.  Adorned with a rainbow, it seemed to promise milder air during our week on the Appalachian Plateau. 

A Pelican Shift?

American white pelicans have long been considered a western species (though small permanent populations exist in Florida and coastal Texas) since they breed on lakes of the Great Basin and Northern Plains.  Over the past decade, however, their summer population seems to be spreading eastward,

Here in central Missouri, these large, majestic birds are common migrants, generally moving through in October and February-March; the spring migrants are especially abundant.  Non-breeding birds range widely during the summer months and small flocks frequently visit Eagle Bluffs Conservation Area on the Missouri River floodplain.  This morning, 22 were present, the most I have ever encountered during the warmer months.

One wonders if the American white pelican population is shifting eastward or if eastern counts are rising due to an expanding population and range.  As climate change dries up lakes in the West, it is easy to imagine that they will increasingly summer and breed in the Great Lakes region.  Time will tell. 

Snow Bowl

A swath of heavy snow, from the Colorado Front Range to the Great Lakes region, is not the result of a potent winter storm.  Rather, this bowl-shaped band of snow, that dips across Texas and up through the Midwest, is due to a dome of Arctic high pressure that is sinking southward through the Heartland.

As the cold air is forced upward along the Front Range or encounters warm, moist air in the Southern Plains and Midwest, heavy snow is produced.  Along the east rim of this bowl, a band of ice (sleet or freezing rain) precedes the snow.

Here in central Missouri, we received about 8 inches of snow.  As the high pressure dome gradually drifts eastward, the bowl's southern edge will pass through our region, bringing flurries and possible further bouts of snow overnight.