Watching Autumn Arrive

Hiking around Perry Phillips Lake on this sunny, cool morning, I observed a thick band of dark clouds across the northwestern horizon.  Having watched the Weather Channel earlier in the day, I knew that it was the leading edge of a cold front that will push across the Midwest over the next 24 hours.  Freeze warnings are in place for the Upper Midwest tonight while, here in Missouri, a frost warning is in effect.

Out on the lake, an osprey and a pied-billed grebe hunted for their breakfast while flocks of noisy Canada geese passed overhead, seemingly declaring the onset of autumn.  Other than a lone, chatty northern mockingbird, songbirds were relatively inactive and quiet, perhaps in response to the atmospheric change.

By the time I completed the 1.4 mile loop, the cloud bank had reached Columbia, temporarily blocking out the bright October sunshine.  At least for now, autumn has displaced our long, hot, miserable summer.  

A Welcome Evolution at Eagle Bluffs

Arriving at Eagle Bluffs Conservation Area just after sunrise, a friend and I found that most of the floodplain was obscured by dense fog after cool air had settled in the Missouri River Valley overnight.  Fortunately, as the sun rose and the air warmed, the fog gradually diminished.

Finally able to scan the landscape, we found that water levels have increased significantly, just in time for the arrival of duck hunters later in the month.  On the other hand, few water birds had yet to take advantage of the change; only eight pied-billed grebes, five great blue herons, two American coot and a lone mallard were observed.  Clouds of red-winged blackbirds and a couple-dozen turkey vultures were the only sizable flocks.  In total, thirteen avian species were encountered during our visit.

No doubt, the rising waters will attract significant flocks of waterfowl over the next couple of months but birdwatching access will be limited once hunting begins.  Nevertheless, the sight of flowing water and expanding pools was reassuring on that desiccated floodplain. 

The Mexico-Kansas Express

Leaving Denver on this clear, cool autumn morning, I noted a dusting of snow on Mt. Blue Sky, a "Fourteener" west of the city; looking to the south, I saw that Pike's Peak was completely snow covered. This early season snow, the first along the Front Range this fall, reflects the impact of Hurricane Polo's recent moisture plume, combined with a cold front that swept in from the northwest.

More impressive were flooded fields throughout western Kansas, an area that was in a prolonged drought until it found itself in Polo's crosshairs.  Indeed, the Hurricane's swath of heavy rain passed right through that area, reaching as far northeast as Minnesota.

To encounter pools of tropical moisture across the semiarid environment of the High Plains was a clear sign that Earth's ecosystems are interconnected.  No doubt, as our climate warms, this fact will become impossible to ignore. 

Hurricane Polo floods the Southwest

One of the strongest hurricanes to ever form in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Polo has weakened to a Category 3 storm before crossing the northern Baja Peninsula.  Nevertheless, its copious moisture has and will continue to drench the Four Corners Region.  Flash flooding is expected to occur due to the mountainous terrain, the torrential downpours and the hard, non-absorbent, desert soil.

A cold front, approaching from the northwest, will intensify the flow of moisture from Polo, sending it through the Four Corners States and across the Great Plains; the Southern Plains will receive most of the rain as moisture flows in from both the Sea of Cortez and the Gulf of Mexico.  Though that area has been in a prolonged drought, too much rain over a short period of time will flood the streams while offering limited drought relief.

Furthermore, powerful waves, spreading north from Polo, will rake the coast of Southern California, exacerbating the damage recently caused by Hurricane Marie.  Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet as a Super El Niño suppresses tropical development in that oceanic region. 

Journey toward the Moon

As I left  Hays, Kansas, early this morning, the bright, full, Harvest Moon gleamed high in the western sky.  Heading toward it on Interstate 70, I was soon enveloped by dense fog that obscured the surrounding landscape.  Only the road in front of me and our beautiful satellite were visible, creating the illusion that I was traveling to the moon.

By the time I reached Ogalla, Kansas, the fog was too dense for safe travel and I pulled off the highway for half an hour; the rising sun eventually warmed the air, the fog began to dissipate and I resumed my journey.  As the sunlight intensified, the brilliance of the moon faded in concert until it finally disappeared behind a distant cloud bank as I approached Oakley, Kansas.

By then, residual fog was limited to the shallow stream valleys and the combination of dry air and bright sunshine highlighted every feature of the High Plains landscape.  An early appointment tomorrow should offer another view of the Harvest Moon from our Littleton, Colorado, farm (sky conditions permitting). 

A Nor'Easter slams the Northeast

While a strong El Niño has suppressed Atlantic hurricanes this year, a potent, slow-moving Nor'Easter threatens the Northeast Coast this weekend.  Already producing coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic States, the storm is expected to crawl northward and intensify in the coming days.

Fifty to sixty mph winds are forecast to lash the region, accompanied by torrential rain and coastal flooding.  Long Island and southern New England appear to be at the greatest risk of storm damage though major disruption of travel and outdoor events will occur from Virginia to Maine.

Named for their strong, persistent, northeast winds, Nor'Easters are most common in late winter.  To experience one in late September is very rare, perhaps the latest sign of our warming climate. 

Golden Farmlands

Heading for my wife's family cottage in northeast Ohio, we drove across the farmlands of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana today.  The overall scenery did not change much but golden hues painted the rural landscape.

In this early phase of meteorologic autumn, the soybean fields have turned yellow, the cornfields have dried out to a golden brown and the roadside vegetation was dominated by swaths of goldenrod.  Of course, all of this color brightened the countryside which was otherwise festooned with the fading greens of heat-stressed trees and shrubs.

Indeed, the golden highlights spoke of fall but the afternoon highs remained in the nineties F as this summer's heat dome retains a grip on the Heartland.  Of interest, the larger rivers, such as the Missouri, the Mississippi and the Wabash were bank full, fed by northern streams beyond the reach of the dome while regional creeks were nearly dry. 

Energized by the Chill

Following a long, extremely hot and exhausting summer, the longer nights and local elevation are finally bringing an overnight chill to the Front Range.  It dropped to 49 degrees F in Littleton this morning.

Refreshing for us humans, the cooler air also energized our avian residents and visitors.  Seemingly more abundant but surely just more active, they were in celebration mode, moving rapidly among the trees and shrubs.  In addition to our more common residents, I encountered a Say's phoebe and a pair of red-breasted nuthatches; though they are now permanent residents along the Front Range urban corridor, the distinctive yanks of the latter birds will always be associated with autumn in my mind.  A lone broad-tailed hummingbird was also zooming about the property but I suspect he'll head south within another week or so.

Finally, just before returning to the house, a squadron of Canada geese flew low over the farm, honking loudly in the morning chill.  Though common here in all seasons, they never fail to awaken my boyhood memories of massive flocks, moving high above our Cincinnati home in the cold, clear, autumn sky.  

Lowell heads North

After churning westward south of the Hawaiian Islands over the past week, Hurricane Lowell has made its predicted turn to the north, drawn by a sagging cold front.  Having reached Category 5 strength a few days ago, it has weakened to a Category 3 storm but remains large and powerful.

Though it will likely miss the heavily populated eastern islands of Hawaii, Lowell may have a significant impact on Kauai and Niihau.  Indeed, its current heading is NNE, almost assuring that strong winds and high waves will lash those western islands.

Meteorology remains an inexact science and the "cone of uncertainty" for hurricanes is often too narrow.  Fortunately, officials in Hawaii have been proactive in this case, declaring a hurricane warning for most of the archipelago.  

A Supercharged Monsoon

The tragic flash flooding in Grand Canyon National Park this past weekend was related to an energized Southwest Monsoon, producing torrential downpours throughout the Four Corners region.  A normal, annual weather pattern, generally stretching from July into September, the Monsoon sweeps moisture in from the Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Cortez and the Gulf of Mexico.

This flow is driven by high pressure over the Southern Plains and by low pressure over the Desert Southwest.  When these atmospheric "pumps" are especially strong, the moisture is enhanced; in addition, storm systems in the Pacific and/or the Gulf of Mexico may inject excessive moisture into the Monsoon "river," increasing the risk of flooding.

As a tropical storm comes ashore near Houston and a tropical system moves up the west coast of Mexico, they may supercharge the Monsoon, augmenting the risk of flash floods from Southern California to Colorado.

Kites in the Trees

A flock of Mississippi kites settled in the canopy of shade trees in our neighborhood this morning, whistling to one another.  As their "fall migration" approaches, they seem to be more interested in communicating than hunting.

Though it was a hot, humid day, their musical banter continued into the afternoon, once again demonstrating that they are unfazed by tropical heat.

Indeed, they will depart for South America before the first hint of autumn pushes into the Heartland.  I wish them a safe journey but, unlike them, I can't wait for the cool, crisp weather of fall.  Of course, that relief is now coming later every year.  

A Greening of the High Plains

Thanks to recurrent clusters of thunderstorms and flooding rains from the Southwest Monsoon, the High Plains east of Denver are now relatively lush.  Herds of cattle and pronghorn appeared to be pleased with the development and, no doubt, so are the farmers and ranchers.

Compared with the dry terrain that greeted us two weeks ago, it looked like spring.  Adding to that impression, we traveled through relatively mild air, not the stifling heat of our westward journey.

Farther east, the High Plains of Kansas had not yet benefitted from a significant influx of rain.  Indeed, the grasslands retained the parched, yellowed appearance that bordered the highway in early August.  By the time we reached Hays, the temperature was in the mid nineties F, exacerbated by a steady south wind. 

LaLa lands in Hawaii

Tropical storm LaLa (perhaps a Category 1 hurricane by now) will pass swiftly south of the Hawaiian Islands over the next two days.  Counterclockwise winds are expected to bring high waves and heavy rain to east facing beaches and mountain slopes, especially on the Big Island and Maui.  The storm's rapid forward motion will hopefully serve to minimize damage across the archipelago.

To date, the Pacific hurricane and typhoon season has been active while Atlantic storms have been suppressed by a strong El Niño (which increases wind shear in the Caribbean) and large clouds of African dust that interfere with storm dynamics.

Nevertheless, the Atlantic Hurricane Season does not generally peak until mid-late September and lasts into November.  Communities along the Gulf and East Coasts are just beginning their season of risk and, as we found out in recent years, inland cities are also vulnerable to these powerful storms and their flooding rains. 

Healing Rain

After at least a month of extreme heat, bright sunshine and no precipitation, our Littleton farm received significant rain over the past two days.  The Southwest Monsoon has intensified along the Front Range and our parched vegetation may green up a bit; at the very least, the risk of fire on our pastures has been greatly diminished.

Elsewhere in the Denver Metro Area, flash flooding has occurred, especially in foothill canyons and across higher terrain south of the city.  The Monsoon is notorious for its uneven distribution of rain, producing heavy downpours in some locations while missing others altogether.

Since the Monsoon Season usually persists into early September, we are hopeful that more healing rains will bless our property.  Now that the dome of heat has shifted eastward, that possibility has increased. 

A Fruitless Year

We are fortunate to have a variety of fruit-producing trees and shrubs on our Littleton farm.  Unfortunately, following a nearly snowless winter, a hard freeze struck in mid-spring, wiping out fruit blossoms and eliminating most of our fruit crop this year. 

Apples, plums, mulberries, crabapples, apricots, wild cherries and pears have not appeared; there has been a limited supply of chokecherries.  The only fruit trees with their usual crop are the junipers, a welcome development for robins, cedar waxwings and for our lone Townsend's solitaire that arrives by October.  Indeed, the lack of fruit seems to have had a significant impact on the number and variety of birds observed on the farm this summer.

Growing fruit in this semiarid ecosystem is always a bit of a gamble but I do not recall any previous year when a spring weather event has been so deleterious.  Followed by an extremely hot and dry summer, that hard freeze seems to have been a warning sign of rough times ahead. 

Into the Furnace

Heading back toward Colorado today, we left Columbia under sunny skies with a temperature in the mid 70s F.  Pleasant conditions persisted through Missouri and eastern Kansas but, west of Salina, the temperature began to climb.  Fueled by a strong south wind, it reached 104 degrees F (per a Hays, Kansas, bank) or 109 degrees F (per our car thermometer).  Once we were outside the vehicle, the steady wind produced a blast furnace effect.

Perusing the National weather map, we appear to be in the hottest bubble outside of the Desert Southwest.  Though I have no documentation, I cannot remember being immersed in such hot air at any time in my life (and that's a lot of time).

We'll set out early in the morning to complete our journey before the afternoon sun takes its toll.  Unfortunately, this is just a warmup (no pun intended) for summers to come.  Then again, perhaps our Dear Leader is correct and climate change is a cruel Liberal hoax!

 

Deluge in Columbia

Awakened by thunderstorms at 3 am, we soon realized that they were just the leading edge of a cold front that would dip across Missouri.  Indeed, within a couple hours, a swath of heavy rain with imbedded thunderstorms stretched from Kansas City to St. Louis.

Storms continued to move along the front throughout the morning, accompanied by frequent lightning and gusty winds.  Now under a flood watch, our region is expected to receive heavy rain into the early afternoon; as the front dips further south, the deluge should end.  Southern Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana will then be on the receiving end.

In a prolonged drought earlier this year, Missouri has received an exceptional amount of precipitation since the high pressure dome that brought excessive heat moved southeastward.  A ridge of high pressure currently overlies the Western U.S., augmenting the wildfire risk throughout that region; Pacific storm systems ride across the northern rim of that atmospheric dome, eventually dipping through the Midwest and releasing their cargo of moisture.  

A Gift from August

August, long renowned for its heat, arrived overnight behind a cold front, bringing cool, misty weather to central Missouri.  Ahead of that front, heavy rain fell across Columbia, a welcome dose of moisture during this long, brutal summer.

While we certainly appreciate that a dramatic change in weather has arrived with the new month, there is little doubt that the heat will return as the front heads east.  But, for now, the cool respite will facilitate some much-delayed yard work.

Since it is the last meteorological month of summer, August invites us to look ahead to the glorious season of autumn.  Unfortunately, climate change is pushing back that transition and, before long, August may represent the midpoint of a prolonged summer season. 

Heat-Seeking Raptors

On this hot, humid afternoon in central Missouri, a trio of Mississippi kites soared above our Columbia neighborhood, feasting on insects.  Their energy under such conditions is impressive.

After nesting and summering across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, they will escape to South America for another summer in the Southern Hemisphere, traveling through hot climes along the way.  When you feed primarily on flying insects, it is best to be where they thrive.

While their seasonal movements are instinctual, these kites are certainly unfazed by weather that many, if not most humans, find oppressive.  Then again, they are not subjected to dire heat advisories. 

Return to Humidity

When we left Hays, Kansas, just before dawn this morning, it was already 75 degrees F, down from 99 degrees F the afternoon before.  Fortunately, as we traveled east, cloud cover persisted and the temperature  remained stable.

Even better, by the time we reached Junction City, rain began to fall, persisting throughout our journey across the Flint Hills.  Holding the temperature in the low 70s F, the rain was also psychologically beneficial after almost a month of intense sunshine and dry heat along the Front Range.

Beyond Topeka, however, the sun returned and the temperature gradually climbed into the upper 80s by the time we reached Columbia, augmented by Midwestern humidity as we entered a southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico.  The moist air will feel good for a few days before I begin to miss the semiarid climate of Colorado.