The current obsession with Global Warming, promoted and abused by a host of conservationists, politicians and business-minded entre-preneurs, is a product of real climate change, our human-centric view of the world and fear-based marketing. We often hear that "average temperatures are higher today than they have been in 10,000 years;" while this fact may be true, it must be viewed through the perspective of natural history.
The Pleistocene "Ice Age," which stretched from 2 million to 10,000 years ago, was just the latest of many glacial periods in the course of Earth's 4.6 billion year history. Furthermore, the Pleistocene was characterized by dramatic climate fluctuations; four periods of glaciation were separated by warm "interglacial periods," most of which lasted 10-20,000 years. Many (if not most) geologists believe that the Holocene, the Epoch in which we live, is just another interglacial period; since it began 10,000 years ago, we are likely in the mid-late phase of this warm interlude and glaciation will redevelop within another 5-10 thousand years. Of course, man's activity and/or other natural catastrophes could delay or hasten this transition.
Current scientific estimates suggest that, if global warming continues at its current rate, sea levels will rise 1-2 meters within the next 100 years; this would, of course, be a disaster for many coastal and island communities. However, in comparison to past warming events, this projected change is relatively mild. An interglacial period that began 400,000 years ago caused near-complete melting of the ice caps on Greenland and the Western Antarctic Shelf; the sea level rose 20 meters above that of today.
While I respect concerns regarding man's effect on the natural environment and strongly support efforts to minimize that impact, we must insist on intellectual integrity when making our case for conservation, pollution control and other important matters. Taking all of the responsibility for climate change is just another exaggeration of man's importance in the Universe.
Addendum (1-9-2020): The above post was written almost 13 years ago, when much of the current evidence for human-induced climate change was not yet clear (at least in my mind). My outlook has since evolved in concert with the revelations of climate science. Some points made in this post remain valid and I choose to keep the post in print to document my personal views at the time, however mistaken they might have been.
The Pleistocene "Ice Age," which stretched from 2 million to 10,000 years ago, was just the latest of many glacial periods in the course of Earth's 4.6 billion year history. Furthermore, the Pleistocene was characterized by dramatic climate fluctuations; four periods of glaciation were separated by warm "interglacial periods," most of which lasted 10-20,000 years. Many (if not most) geologists believe that the Holocene, the Epoch in which we live, is just another interglacial period; since it began 10,000 years ago, we are likely in the mid-late phase of this warm interlude and glaciation will redevelop within another 5-10 thousand years. Of course, man's activity and/or other natural catastrophes could delay or hasten this transition.
Current scientific estimates suggest that, if global warming continues at its current rate, sea levels will rise 1-2 meters within the next 100 years; this would, of course, be a disaster for many coastal and island communities. However, in comparison to past warming events, this projected change is relatively mild. An interglacial period that began 400,000 years ago caused near-complete melting of the ice caps on Greenland and the Western Antarctic Shelf; the sea level rose 20 meters above that of today.
While I respect concerns regarding man's effect on the natural environment and strongly support efforts to minimize that impact, we must insist on intellectual integrity when making our case for conservation, pollution control and other important matters. Taking all of the responsibility for climate change is just another exaggeration of man's importance in the Universe.
Addendum (1-9-2020): The above post was written almost 13 years ago, when much of the current evidence for human-induced climate change was not yet clear (at least in my mind). My outlook has since evolved in concert with the revelations of climate science. Some points made in this post remain valid and I choose to keep the post in print to document my personal views at the time, however mistaken they might have been.
