The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and ends by mid November; the second week in September generally represents the peak of hurricane development. Early in the season, tropical depressions (the precursors of tropical storms and hurricanes) usually develop from disturbances over the warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If not aborted by strong, upper-level winds or by interaction with areas of inversion (sinking, dry air), these isolated depressions feed on the heat and humidity of the tropical atmosphere, develop rotating clusters of thunderstorms and may give rise to a tropical storm; the latter becomes a hurricane if its peak, sustained winds reach 74 mph.
By mid summer, the easterly African jet stream begins to carry waves of low pressure into the tropical Atlantic. Drifting westward, these waves may progress to tropical depressions and thence to tropical storms and hurricanes. In many cases, cold fronts, moving east off the coast of North America, deflect these storms to the north and they die over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic. If not deflected by fronts or torn apart by upper level winds, the storms continue westward, threatening islands of the Caribbean or the Southeast Coast of the U.S.; in some cases, they move into the Gulf of Mexico.
Today, Hurricane Ike, a category 4 storm, is poised to strike eastern Cuba. It's strength will likely diminish over the mountainous landscape of that island (primarily due to the loss of its tropical water heat source) but the remnant circulation is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, regain strength and move toward the northern or western Gulf Coast. Then again, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable; as they say, stay tuned!
