Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Wildfires and Global Warming

The tragic wildfires in California are, in large part, related to an ongoing drought but there has been some speculation that they are a consequence of global warming.  While stagnant weather patterns have set the stage for wildfires throughout the history of our planet, their current relationship to climate change is less clear.  On the other hand, one can reasonably speculate that a warmer climate will make dry areas drier and wet areas wetter; after all, latitude, geography and ocean currents will not change (at least in the foreseeable course of human history).

As with hurricanes, the incidence of wildfires may not be directly affected by global warming but their severity will surely be augmented.  Those who live in fire-prone areas (e.g. semiarid forests), like those who live on barrier islands or in coastal lowlands, must accept the fact that the risk of disaster will continue to rise as the climate warms.  Economically, that risk will place a stress on society as a whole; insurance rates cannot be indefinitely raised for everyone in order to cover those in high risk areas.  As a result, private insurance companies will likely refuse to offer "fire insurance" in wildfire prone regions just as they have eliminated flood insurance coverage across most of the country.

In effect, global warming will begin to dictate where human habitation is both sustainable and affordable.  Urbanization, already a trend in human society, will likely accelerate and high risk natural ecosystems will be handed back to Mother Nature; of course, the survivability of wildlife in those ecosystems will be tested as well.