Thousand-Year Floods

Following episodes of severe flooding, as occurred in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois yesterday, references are made to a "thousand-year flood," indicating that such an event is expected no more often than every thousand years.  Of course, such an expectation is based on meteorological data that has accumulated over the past Century or so.

Unfortunately, we are now in a different atmospheric environment, courtesy of global warming that was triggered by the Industrial Revolution.  Earth's seas and atmosphere are steadily warming, saturating the air that moves above the Continents and archipelagos.  Storms, ignited by atmospheric clashes along an energized jet stream, often drop copious amounts of rain and, should the storms "train" across the same areas, severe flooding occurs.

Such destructive floods are becoming more common and will only increase in frequency as our climate continues to warm.  Efforts to reverse that trend are not currently sufficient, especially in the U.S., and we ignore the risk of living on floodplains and barrier islands.  "Thousand-Year Floods" have become annual events. 

Preventing Animal Abuse

At least three animal rescue organizations are currently running ads on American TV; indeed, the ads are repeatedly broadcast throughout the day (seemingly every hour at times).  In almost all cases, emphasis is placed on donating money to feed the abused animals.

While these ads surely trigger sympathy for the suffering victims, little mention is made of the humans responsible for the abuse.  Raising funds to prosecute those individuals and organizations would seem to be a more effective approach.

Preventing animal abuse should be the primary goal of these campaigns.  Rescuing animals that are suffering and dying may then become unnecessary. 

The Nature of Opinions

We humans all have opinions on a wide range of subjects, beliefs and "facts."  While these opinions may be interesting or entertaining, most are of dubious value.

Educated opinions, on the other hand, based on one's scientific knowledge of the subject, come closer to the truth.  Yet, current scientific data may prove to be inaccurate as more is learned over the years.  Indeed, truth is the goal of the scientific method but, in most cases, it remains an elusive target.

Too often, the opinions of "experts" are accepted as fact.  When certain individuals, such as Our Dear Leader, convince devoted followers that their opinion "is the truth," cults arise.  Unbridled opinions are a danger to society.

The Birding Nadir

While naturalists enjoy outdoor sightings (plant and animal) throughout all seasons, I suspect that, for most birders in the Temperate Zone, July is the low point of their year.  The breeding season has ended, heat suppresses avian activity and, except for some "early" shorebirds, migrations are not underway.

Though winter weather may pose more of a challenge for some birders, permanent and winter species tend to be active and conspicuous; after all, their survival depends on locating an adequate supply of food.  Furthermore, winter often brings irruptive species and rare wanderers into our area.  Of course, the spring and fall migration periods are especially rewarding, offering a mix of permanent and seasonal residents, joined by a fabulous variety of transient visitors.

Experienced birders know that early and late day jaunts are the best way to encounter a reasonable number of species during the heat of summer.  Nevertheless, in my experience, July cannot match the avian diversity of June or August; it earns my personal designation as the birding nadir.  

Compassionate Capitalism

As more "Social Democrats" win positions in the November election, "traditional Democrats" understandably worry that their Party may lose the support of Independents and Conservative-leaning Democrats.  No doubt, this political movement reflects inadequate attention to social support programs over the years.

A shift toward "Compassionate Capitalism" seems to be the best approach to defeating Trump and his Republican enablers.  Corporations should be openly encouraged to shift their donations from Trump's vanity projects to the support of social programs that his Administration has eliminated.  They might also be encouraged to fund free child care for their employees and to work closely with the Federal and local governments to ensure that their basic medical and housing needs are met.

Socialism is not the answer to creating a fair and productive society.  The cooperation of corporations, local businesses, philanthropists and governments can provided the necessary support without derailing our capitalist system.  Of course, the corruption throughout our Federal Government must also be abolished.    

The Drought and Waders

Non-birders may be surprised to learn that a wide variety of herons, ibis and egrets summer in or visit the Front Range urban corridor.  Indeed, great blue herons and black-crowned night herons are common permanent residents while great egrets, snowy egrets, white-faced ibis and cattle egrets are common summer residents and migrants.  Both American and least bitterns are uncommon summer residents and a host of waders are rare summer visitors; the latter include tricolored herons, yellow-crowned night herons and white ibis.

Most of these waders favor shallow mudflats and marshlands along the border of ponds, lakes and rivers and are thus not obvious to those who visit wetland habitats.  This summer, however, the drought has severely lowered the water level in lakes and rivers, drawing herons and egrets out into the open in search of fish and aquatic invertebrates.

As a result, I have encountered far more waders in Littleton than I have seen in past years.  Just this morning, I saw ten snowy egrets, five black-crowned night herons and a few great blue herons along a short stretch of the South Platte River.  Of course, such rewards do not make up for a crippling drought but its effects are worth noting. 

Freedom under Assault

On this 250th Birthday of the United States, our cherished freedom is under assault by an incompetent and corrupt Administration, serving only the wishes of our Narcissist-in-Chief.  Untethered by a fear-struck Republican Congress, Trump and his cronies are dismantling our Department of Justice, our Military and our relationship with Allies across the globe.

American citizens are struggling while the President and his family are raking in an obscene amount of money.  Our health care system has been degraded, science has been ridiculed and the conservation of our natural resources has been abandoned.

Worst of all, our personal rights have come under assault by racist, wealth-driven, religious zealots who want to mold our country into a white, conservative, Christian kingdom.  Happy Fourth of July! 

Smoke from Distant Fires

Haze from wildfire smoke has gradually increased along the Colorado Front Range over the past week.  There are at least 7 active fires in Colorado and 6 in Utah, not to mention a couple in New Mexico and many farther west.

Of course, the ongoing Western drought is primarily responsible for the large number of fires, most of which have been ignited by lightning or human carelessness.  So far, the annual Southwest Monsoon has been meager at best, bringing little moisture to the dry terrain.

Due to our local drought and poor air quality from the wildfires, most firework displays have already been cancelled throughout Metro Denver.  Parades, cookouts and festivals will have to suffice. 

Collective Guilt

It is always helpful when our personal failures mirror social trends.  Collective guilt and pain are easier to deal with.

Recently, there has been a great deal of media attention paid to "eggshell marriages" and a significant increase in the divorce rate of couples in their fifties or beyond.  This, of course, relates to the period after child rearing has ended, leaving the couple on their own once again.

While I would never criticize the decision of a couple to divorce, I do feel that relationship problems later in life often stem from spending too much time together.  In many ways, this habit reinforces our differences and may deprive one another of activities that they personally enjoy, including engagement with friends who share those interests.  Then again, being part of a social trend may have its own psychological benefits.

Immigration & Racism

The Supreme Court's decision yesterday, to uphold Birthright Citizenship, has upset Donald Trump and his minions.  Though he married two foreigners, our King wants to purify America; in other words, he wants to curtail the percentage of non-white citizens in this country.  To be clear, Trump welcomes the immigration of Caucasian Europeans and South Africans while actively deporting black and brown immigrants.

On the other hand, even if he shut down immigration altogether, this country would (and will) become "less white" over the coming decades.  Many of our most successful and innovative citizens are immigrants or children of immigrants, a fact that Trump and his legions prefer to ignore.

Once again, government-sponsored racism has reared its ugly head.  Fortunately, its sponsors lost this round.  

A Voice of Promise

As we enter the heart of summer in the midst of a heat wave and bathed in smoke from the Utah fires, it was reassuring to hear the soft hooting of a great horned owl last evening.  Common throughout most of the Western Hemisphere, these large owls are regular visitors to our Littleton farm though, to my knowledge, they have never nested on the property.

The rather muted voice of last evening's visitor suggested it was a young owl, born last winter and now on its own after several months of parental assistance.  The soft hoots, from a large tree near our house, certainly did not match the loud, confident banter of adult owls in late autumn and winter.

Feeding on a wide range of mammals, from mice to opossums, and on snakes, lizards and birds as well, great horned owls tend to be silent loners throughout the warmer months.  Last evening's hoots thus seemed to promise that cool, crisp October nights lie ahead.   

Swallow Mania

This summer, a massive flock of cliff swallows has colonized a bridge over the South Platte River near downtown Littleton.  Their gourd-shaped nest cavities, formed with mud, line both sides of the bridge and are four rows wide in some areas.  Grass is used to coat the interior of the gourds, making them more comfortable for the nestlings.

This morning, the attentive parents were ingesting a variety of flying insects above the river and over the adjacent fields; indeed, I have seen flocks of them above our Littleton farm, almost a mile from the bridge.  Exhausted parents temporarily rested on power lines along the river before resuming their sorties.

Long distance migrants, cliff swallows winter in southern South America, returning to North America to nest by mid spring.  While most common in the western half of the U.S., their range has been expanding eastward as their nest site preference has shifted from cliffs to bridges and other human structures. 

A Ridge of Heat

Following a week of stormy weather along the Colorado Front Range and across the Central Plains, an atmospheric ridge will build in by tomorrow, bringing sunny, hot conditions within its expanding dome.  Here in Metro Denver, we expect highs in the 90s F for the next week.

As the ridge, produced by a northward arc of the jet stream, expands across the Plains and into the Midwest, Pacific storm systems will be directed along its rim, bringing thunderstorms to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Meanwhile, behind the dome, an atmospheric trough (a dip in the jet stream) will bring cool, moist air to the drought-plagued West; while snow is expected at high elevations, strong winds and lightning may actually increase the risk of wildfires across the dry terrain.

Until the ridge shifts eastward, the Southwest Monsoon, a vital source of moisture throughout the Four Corners Region and the Southern Rockies may be shut down.  Let's hope the ridge does not dally. 

Venezuela's Earthquakes

A magnitude 7.2 foreshock and a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck northern Venezuela yesterday; many aftershocks have followed.  At least 164 persons were killed and close to 1000 were injured; unfortunately, these early counts are almost certain to rise.

A complex band of faults between the Caribbean Plate and the South American Plate runs across northern Venezuela.  As the Atlantic Ocean continues to open, a process that began during the Jurassic Period, about 150 million years ago, the North and South America Plates have been moving westward.  Eventually, the much smaller Caribbean Plate became wedged between them, setting the stage for earthquakes when pressure between the plates is released.  These major events trigger pressure release in numerous side faults, producing aftershocks throughout the region.

The primary magnitude 7.5 quake was the second strongest ever recorded in Venezuela, weaker only than a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in 1900.  Hopefully, it will retain that title for many years to come; then again, a more powerful quake could occur tomorrow as the geologic map of Planet Earth continues to evolve.

Artificial Intelligence & Biotechnology

Of all the claims and fears associated with the use of artificial intelligence, its promise in the field of biotechnology is, in my opinion, most convincing.  Having witnessed the prolonged and risky course of drug development from both the perspective of a provider and a patient, I foresee significant benefits afforded by the availability of A.I.

New drug development has long been slowed by the complexities of animal and/or human-based studies, including unforeseen complications.  As a result, it generally takes years to bring a life-saving therapy to market, among the major reasons for its high cost.  Artificial intelligence is able to identify both effective therapies and potential side-effects within a relatively short period of time, thereby improving both the efficiency and the safety of this vital process.

No doubt, there are many convincing arguments against the overuse and unmonitored application of artificial intelligence.  But its value in the field of biotechnology seems to be especially promising.  

Social Depression in America

Regardless of our personal medical and economic health, most Americans are likely dealing with a persistent sense of depression as we endure the far-reaching effects of a corrupt and incompetent Administration in Washington.  Battered daily by unsettling news and the comments of an aging narcissist, we long for a change in leadership and despise those who are unwilling to oppose his dangerous, costly and un-American policies.

Whether we are most disturbed by the Administration's criminal deportation program, their willingness to cut ties with our Allies, their disdain for science and conservation, their overt racism or their lack of support for low-income populations in this country and across the globe, we long for a return to the America we once knew.

While donations to organizations that oppose the actions of the Trump Administration offer some degree of comfort, our depression will not lift until Trump and his enablers are removed from office.  Hopefully, the November elections will initiate that healing process and set the stage for Impeachment.  

Flashback Post LXXVIII

On this Father's Day, most fathers likely think of their own father and of their son(s).  These links, vital to the welfare of human society, are too often strained or broken, a problem I addressed back in 2015.

See:  Fathers & Sons 

Extreme Weather & Climate Change

Weather extremes have characterized most of the U.S. this year.  This week's flooding across the Southeastern States has been record-breaking as some locations have received almost three feet of rain.  Ironically, some of the deluge has occurred in areas that had been plagued by drought for many months.

Farther north, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, high winds and large hail have repeatedly raked the Great Plains and Upper Midwest.  This weekend, another round of severe weather will develop across the High Plains, moving through the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic Region over the following days.

Extreme heat, warm oceans and a powerful, unruly jet stream combine to produce these dangerous weather conditions.  More than typical, seasonal storm systems, we are witnessing the effects of a warming climate.  Though its effects may vary over the years, these extreme weather events will surely become more common and efforts to reduce damage and deaths will be imperative. 

Baggies along the Trail

Most dog walkers have fallen in line with social expectations, bagging up their pet's excrement in our neighborhoods, parks and nature preserves.  But for some, that environmentalism is limited to the act of bagging itself; the inconvenience of toting the package back home, or to their vehicle, is beyond their willingness to cooperate.

As a result, we now encounter the plastic baggies and their contents along our sidewalks and trails, doubling the pollution.  One wonders who they assume will collect their gifts to the community; park rangers? roving garbage collectors? fastidious neighbors?

Unfortunately, this behavior characterizes the half-hearted environmentalism that we observe throughout human society.  The level of cooperation and commitment is determined by how much inconvenience one can endure.  Hence our increasingly polluted planet. 

Aurora's Global Fest

Since I was out of town, I missed the 13th Annual Aurora Global Fest, in Aurora, Colorado, last weekend.  Highlighting the cultural traditions of sixty-eight countries, booths and displays introduced visitors to the food, music, dance, clothing and artwork of each society.

Such a celebration of diversity is especially welcome in present-day America, where the Trump Administration tolerates only white, American-born citizens.  One wonders if plain-clothed Ice Agents were patrolling the festival, tasting the cuisine while looking for undocumented immigrants to deport.

I applaud those who plan, fund and organize such international festivals.  They demonstrate both the variability of human culture and the uniformity of our species. 

A Memorable Year

Not much of an NBA fan, I paid only fleeting attention to the recent Championship Tournament.  On the other hand, the frequent mention of the year 1973, when the New York Knicks last won the NBA Championship, never failed to get my attention.

In 1973, I was 23 years old and attending medical school.  A good friend died that year and three others got married, the first in my circle of friends to take the plunge.  As for myself, one relationship was imploding while another was just beginning, a classic formula for emotional turmoil.  Indeed, I must admit that 1973 was the most memorable year in my life.

I suspect most humans have experienced similar years and would guess that they also occurred during those formative years of freedom, between high school graduation and marriage.  After all, intense and lasting memories are seared by strong emotions and that period is replete with episodes of joy and pain.