Smoke from Distant Fires

Haze from wildfire smoke has gradually increased along the Colorado Front Range over the past week.  There are at least 7 active fires in Colorado and 6 in Utah, not to mention a couple in New Mexico and many farther west.

Of course, the ongoing Western drought is primarily responsible for the large number of fires, most of which have been ignited by lightning or human carelessness.  So far, the annual Southwest Monsoon has been meager at best, bringing little moisture to the dry terrain.

Due to our local drought and poor air quality from the wildfires, most firework displays have already been cancelled throughout Metro Denver.  Parades, cookouts and festivals will have to suffice. 

A Ridge of Heat

Following a week of stormy weather along the Colorado Front Range and across the Central Plains, an atmospheric ridge will build in by tomorrow, bringing sunny, hot conditions within its expanding dome.  Here in Metro Denver, we expect highs in the 90s F for the next week.

As the ridge, produced by a northward arc of the jet stream, expands across the Plains and into the Midwest, Pacific storm systems will be directed along its rim, bringing thunderstorms to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Meanwhile, behind the dome, an atmospheric trough (a dip in the jet stream) will bring cool, moist air to the drought-plagued West; while snow is expected at high elevations, strong winds and lightning may actually increase the risk of wildfires across the dry terrain.

Until the ridge shifts eastward, the Southwest Monsoon, a vital source of moisture throughout the Four Corners Region and the Southern Rockies may be shut down.  Let's hope the ridge does not dally. 

Konza Prairie Biological Station

Though I have driven past it hundreds of times, I never looked into the history and management of the Konza Prairie Biological Station in the Flint Hills of eastern Kansas until today.  Owned by Kansas State University and the Nature Conservancy, this 3487 hectare reserve stretches across rolling tallgrass prairie, just north of Interstate 70.  Indeed, it protects the largest remnant of unplowed tallgrass prairie in North America.

Established in 1971 and significantly enlarged by the addition of the Dewey Ranch in the late Seventies, the Station is named for the Kaw or Kanza People, who occupied the region before they were forced out during the mid-late 19th Century.  The Konza Prairie is managed by the KSU Division of Biology with the primary goals of conservation, education and research; the latter includes ecologic, hydrologic and geologic studies, including the effects of periodic burning and ungulate grazing (cattle, bison or none).

The Station Headquarters is off McDowell Creek Road (north of I-70), where a trail provides access to the prairie ecosystem.  Information for this post was obtained from the Station's website; your financial support for their research is encouraged. 

A Snowstorm in May

It is not rare for snow to fall along the Colorado Front Range during the month of May.  An unruly spring jet stream, significant changes in elevation and the presence of a storm system crossing the Desert Southwest are the usual ingredients.

The current snow storm, which began yesterday, developed as a deep atmospheric trough (dip in the jet stream) allowed cold, Canadian air to drop southward along the Front Range while counterclockwise winds, around a low pressure center in New Mexico, pulled in Gulf of Mexico moisture from the Great Plains.  This upslope flow dropped two feet of snow in the mountains, a foot of snow in the foothills and rain changing to snow along the Front Range urban corridor.

This welcome moisture will likely have a limited effect on the State's drought and on Metro Denver's water shortage but it is surely welcomed by the regional flora and fauna.  Perhaps the greatest benefit of the storm will be to diminish the threat a wildfires across the eastern slope of the Front Range as the annual fire season gets underway.  Early and prolonged Southwest Monsoons and normal to heavy mountain snowpacks over the coming years are needed to end the drought. 

FEMA and Looming Disasters

While spending billions on an unjustified war, Our Dear Leader has cut back on the funding of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.  This decision comes amidst the threats of climate change (a challenge that he and his Administration ridicule).

Currently, severe drought across the American West and the Southeastern States has set the stage for a destructive wildfire season.  Meanwhile, tornados and flooding have ravaged the Upper Midwest and the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins within a month.

As with most of the decisions he makes, Trump's policies boost his "strong man" image and benefit the wealthy class, those least affected by natural disasters.  After all, those loyal supporters readily donate to his personal projects (such as the planned ballroom and arch) that will define his legacy. 

The Southeastern Drought

Due to a persistent atmospheric ridge over the Southeastern U.S., storm systems arriving from the Pacific have been shunted across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeastern States.  As a result, severe drought has developed within that ridge; indeed, much of Georgia and Florida are in extreme drought.

A stable jet stream arc, from the Southern Plains to the Ohio River Valley and across the Mid-Atlantic region has produced the ridge.  Within its dome, air is sinking and heating up, impairing cloud formation, negating precipitation and drying out the soil.  As one might expect, the incidence of wildfires has increased significantly.

Fortunately, a potent storm system is forecast to arrive within a week, displacing the ridge and bringing much needed rain to the Southeastern States.  An early tropical storm or two would be nice as well but an El Niño pattern in the Pacific is expected to dampen this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season; on the other hand, El Niños tend to produce more precipitation across the Southern U.S. 

Western Wildfires

While many areas in the eastern half of the U.S. have endured torrential rain and flash flooding over the past few weeks, States west of the Rocky Mountains have been plagued by drought, extreme heat and, at times, strong winds.  As a result, every Western State currently has active wildfires.

As reported earlier this week, the Southwest Monsoon has not materialized this year, depriving the region of vital seasonal moisture.  This morning, smoke from the fires has spread southward behind a cold front, producing extremely poor air quality along the Front Range urban corridor.

An inland moving tropical system would appear necessary to put an end to the tinder dry conditions across the West but such relief is currently not in sight.  Weather patterns responsible for the East-West discrepancy are, for now, firmly entrenched.

Smoke Signals

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires, having drifted south through the Midwest over the past few days, has now reached the Southeastern States.  More than reducing visibility, the smoke has produced poor air quality which is of special concern to those who work outdoors or who have chronic lung disease.

While there is nothing positive about this invasion of smoke from a health point of view, it does call attention to the distant devastation in Canada, an environmental catastrophe that might otherwise go unnoticed in the U.S.  Furthermore, it is a clear signal that ecosystems across the globe, including man-made habitats, are interconnected.  We cannot ignore the health of any environment (marine or terrestrial) without suffering the consequences.

Those who deny climate change need to personally experience its effects, whether it be via floods, hurricanes, drought or wildfires to give them pause.  Hopefully, this invasion of smoke will send a clear message and serve to change their misguided attitude. 

Mountain Living

While we humans evolved in the Rift Valley of East Africa, our species has long been enamored with mountainous terrain.  Camps, cabins, caves and towns in the mountains offered beautiful scenery, plenty of clean water and a diverse variety of wild game.  Even today their appeal persists though modern life diminishes the need to hunt for food.

As our climate warms, however, the risks of mountain living have increased significantly.  Prolonged drought augments the incidence of forest fires while, as we have seen in Asheville, North Carolina, and eastern Kentucky, torrential rains over mountainous topography can cause tragic flooding.  Just this week, a mountain glacier fractured in Switzerland, sending a slurry of ice, water, mud and vegetation downhill, burying a small village; fortunately, an advanced warning saved most of the residents.

Mountains will always appeal to humans but living on or beneath them, like living on barrier islands or on major river floodplains, will become increasingly risky and expensive as climate change remolds the planet. 

Westward into May

After dodging thunderstorms in central Kansas yesterday afternoon, we continued westward today.  Cool, dry air had dropped in behind the storms and bright sunshine illuminated the High Plains.

Flocks of great-tailed grackles scoured the rest stops and barnyards while the occasional kestrel, prairie falcon or Swainson's hawk (the latter species just back from Argentina) hunted along the highway.  Pronghorn were especially common across the Palmer Divide.

As we approached Denver, we noted that a significant amount of snow still coats the higher peaks of the Front Range, a welcome sign for a sprawling city in a semiarid ecosystem; of course, the Metro Area may receive snow during May as well.  More from Colorado over the next week or two. 

Rain threatens Southern California

After a prolonged drought and devastating wildfires, rain will return to Southern California over the next few days.  Unfortunately, it is expected to be too much precipitation within too short of a period.

A Pacific storm is approaching the West Coast, initially directing its stream of moisture toward northern and central California, adding to the Sierra snowpack.  By tomorrow, this band of precipitation will shift southward, unleashing heavy rain across the Los Angeles basin and its surrounding highlands.  Flooding is expected throughout the region and the rain will likely trigger mudslides in the burn areas.

While winter is the rainy season in Southern California, it is arriving too late to prevent wildfires and too soon to allow the burn scars to heal.  Unfortunately, climate change is expected to intensify both drought and flooding across our country and around the globe. 

Disasters, Risk & Questions

As the California wildfires reach epic proportions, we mourn the tragic loss for so many residents and businesses and, if we can, donate to relief efforts that might ease the pain of those affected.  We have seen such disasters before but not to this extent.

The same might be said for losses related to floods, hurricanes, mudslides and other natural disasters.  As we know, the frequency and severity of these events will significantly increase as our climate warms.  Yet, once the immediate danger subsides, we humans insist on rebuilding in high risk zones: dry forest canyons, barrier islands, floodplains and coastal lowlands, among others.

The drive to restore one's home and community is understandable but how many rounds will occur before we abandon these areas?  Santa Ana winds, severe hurricanes, extensive flooding, prolonged drought and wildfires will continue to occur and their effects will only worsen.  Perhaps it is time to face reality and restrict construction in high risk terrain; while some disasters, such as tornados, might ravage any city or community, others are predictable, based on regional weather patterns, ecology and topography. 

Flashback Post LXI

The current explosive wildfire in Malibu Canyon, like most wildfires in Southern California, was triggered by an ignition source, extremely dry foliage and Santa Ana Winds.  The latter were discussed in a post back in November of 2007.

See: Santa Ana Winds 

Widespread Drought Relief

The latest Pacific storm system, currently centered over North Texas, will track northeastward this week, bringing welcome relief to many drought-plagued areas.  Today, its trailing cold front is expected to ignite strong thunderstorms (with possible tornados and flooding rains) across the Southern Plains.

By tomorrow, the rains will fall primarily across the Midwest while the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley can expect significant precipitation by mid week.  Finally, before moving out to sea, the front is forecast to bring much needed rain to New England, where wildfires continue to develop.

As the lower section of this storm front moves eastward along the Gulf Coast, it is expected to sweep copious moisture from Tropical Storm Sara across that region and the Florida Peninsula.  Meanwhile, much cooler air will drop south behind the storm as the next Pacific system brings rain and snow to the Northwest. 

An Extensive Drought

As of this week, almost all areas west of the Appalachians, in addition to coastal areas of the Northeast, are experiencing some degree of drought.  While flooding from Hurricanes Helene and Milton has deservedly received a great deal of attention, the widespread drought is potentially even more devastating.

Many areas of the U.S. have received only a negligible amount of rain throughout October and above normal temperatures are forecast for the coming week.  Mountain snowpack is off to a slow start in the West and river levels are falling across the Heartland.  The risk of wildfire has increased significantly in most regions of the country.

Warm, sunny weather is appealing to most humans and we tend to focus more on storms than on drought.  In that regard, another tropical storm appears to be brewing in the Caribbean.  One hopes it might move northward and spread welcome rain across the Plains and the Midwest but it would have to cross the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico en route, likely spawning another destructive hurricane.  Slow-moving, Pacific cold fronts would offer a better and less damaging remedy for the drought but our changing climate seems to yield extremes at every turn.

Wildfires: Distant & Near

Stuck beneath an atmospheric dome of hot air, the Colorado Front Range cities have also endured incursions of smoke from distant wildfires across the American West.  Yesterday, three separate fires developed along the foothill corridor, from Metro Denver to Estes Park, aggravating the poor air quality.

Despite a good winter and spring snowpack across the Continental Divide, lower elevation ecosystems have been stressed by a hot and unusually dry summer.  Furthermore, yesterday's fires developed on a relatively calm day; high winds, not uncommon here, would have made these flareups far worse.  Unfortunately, at least one individual was killed and hundreds of residents were evacuated.

The Southwest Monsoon generally provides significant precipitation in August and rain is expected by the middle of next week; however, thunderstorms also bring the risk of lightning-induced wildfire.  Finally, as our climate warms, the monsoon season may be altered, adding another level of uncertainty and risk in this fire-prone region.  

Heartland Heat Wave

A dome of high pressure has settled over the Heartland, bringing warm, dry air and clear skies.  Here in Missouri, we expect afternoon highs in the mid 70s F to low 80s F over the next few days.

Highs across the Southern Plains will push into the 90s F and strong, clockwise winds around the rim of the dome will fuel the risk of wildfires; most of eastern Colorado is currently under of red flag warning.

This heat wave, producing high temperatures 20 degrees F above "normal" will end with a bang. Thunderstorms, some severe and harboring tornados, will develop as a cold front pushes down from the northwest.  After a high near 80 F on Tuesday, we expect a high in the low 40s F on Wednesday.  Once again, dramatic temperature swings and intense storms are becoming the norm as our climate warms. 

Redcedars invade the Great Plains

Having watched robins and waxwings feed in our eastern redcedar over the past week, I was interested in "Battling a Green Glacier" discussed in the autumn issue of Living Bird, a publication of the Cornell Ornithology Lab.  The article discusses the advance of redcedars into grassland ecosystems of the Great Plains.

Eastern redcedars, common throughout the eastern half of the U.S., are junipers and members of the Cypress Family.  Planted on the Great Plains as windbreaks and snow-fences and to beautify the landscape on farms and in towns, they are now spreading into the prairies and ranchlands.  Wildfire suppression has augmented their spread which is also mediated by avian dispersal of seeds.  Ecologists are alarmed by the loss of habitat for grasslands species and ranchers are disturbed by the loss of grazing land; both groups also point out that these woodlands accelerate the reduction of groundwater.  Of course, agriculture, industry and suburban sprawl are also responsible for grassland habitat destruction but are not discussed to any degree in this article.

Redcedars have always been pioneer trees, among the first to colonize abandoned farms and rocky glades.  The Green Glacier decried in the article is just another consequence of human impact on natural ecosystems.  We introduced the trees and suppressed wildfires.  The redcedars are just doing their thing. 

Maui Wildfires

Though Hawaii is known for its lush, tropical landscapes, the volcanic mountains, prevailing winds and ocean currents produce micro-climates throughout the island chain.  Unfortunately, current atmospheric conditions set the stage for wildfires that are now raging in western Maui.

A dome of high pressure north of the archipelago and Hurricane Dora to the south are combining to rake the westernmost islands with strong east winds.  Gusting to 60 mph or more, the intensity and drying effect of these winds is exacerbated by the mountainous terrain.  As these winds descend west of the volcanos, the air heats up and dries out, augmenting the risk of wildfires.

Indeed, the current wildfires developed on the western slopes of the mountains, invading heavily-populated tourist areas.  Though the winds are expected to subside through the day, damage is reported to be extensive.  At least one wildfire has also developed on the west side of the Big Island. 

Haze on the Plains

I left Denver this morning in a dense haze which persisted across the High Plains of eastern Colorado.  The obvious culprit was a cold front that had dropped through the region overnight; chilly air (48 degrees F) had spread above the warm, soggy soil, causing fog to develop across the landscape.

In addition, the cold front pulled down smoke-laden air, the product of raging wildfires in Western Canada.  By the time I reached Kansas, the air temperature had risen into the sixties F; as a result, the fog dissipated but the smoke still produced a mild haze.

Such is the nature of air masses, influenced by both local conditions and distant events.  Though it was not a good day for sightseeing, my numerous journeys on I-70 have ensured that the regional landscape is firmly ingrained in my memory.