Saturday, August 19, 2023

Hilary Churns toward the Southwest

Having formed in the warm Pacific waters off Mexico, Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified into a Category 4 storm and is churning to the NNW.  Expected to weaken in cooler waters off the Baja Peninsula, the storm may still retain Tropical Storm status when it enters Southern California; if so, it will be the first to do so in 84 years.

While high winds may cause damage, the primary concern with Hilary is widespread flooding.  Directing a steady flow of tropical moisture across much of the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, the storm will likely drop up to 10 inches of rain in mountainous areas; while 2-3 inches is forecast for most of the region, that is a year's worth of precipitation for many desert locations.

Like so many "natural disasters" over the past few years, this unusual weather event reflects our warming climate.  Warmer ocean waters and higher sea levels will produce havoc across the globe, primarily for coastal regions but, at times, far inland.